The December 2003 edition of Stainless Steel Review estimates global stainless steel output in 2003 at 20.2 million tonnes, up 4.4% on the year earlier figure. The review forecasts further expansion in 2004 to around 21 million tonnes. Western World production is expected to rise from 18.7 million tonnes in 2002 to 19.5 million tonnes this year and to over 20 million tonnes in the following 12 months. Demand in the European Union has been rather sluggish since January. In contrast, export sales have improved. This has enabled the steel makers to increase output by an estimated 3.5% in 2003. Over the next 12 months domestic consumption should be better but foreign supplies may drop a little. Japanese production is expected to end this year at a figure 3.4% higher than in 2002. All the improvement has been the result of a rise in export volumes – mainly to China. Home consumption should expand marginally in 2004 and sales to the Asian markets should hold up quite well. In contrast, the situation in the USA is dire. Domestic demand is flat, and exports are almost impossible to secure. Output this year is likely to be down 2.5%. Further cuts are possible if the threatened closure of melting at the J and L plant takes place.
