MEPS forecasts that global crude stainless steel production will reach 60 million tonnes, in 2023. Significant contributors to this growth will be steelmakers in China and Indonesia.
While India is likely to remain the third-largest stainless steel producing country next year, its output is predicted to surge by more than 10%. The authorities in that nation are investing heavily in major stainless steel-consuming infrastructure projects.
The International Monetary Fund predicts that China’s GDP growth will rebound to 5.2%, this year. This should support key stainless steel-consuming sectors such as construction and consumer appliance manufacturing. Consequently, MEPS estimates that stainless steel production will reach 34 million tonnes, in 2023.
In Europe, output in the July/September 2022 period decreased by approximately one-third, quarter-on-quarter. However, production data for October/November 2022 suggests that output should recover, to 1.47 million tonnes, in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, several major stainless steel producers expect shipments to improve, in the first quarter of 2023.
US production in the fourth quarter of 2022 is estimated to be 450,000 tonnes. The recovery in melting activity, in the first three months of 2023, is expected to be slower than that in Europe.
In South Korea, output in the final three months of 2022 reached only 161,000 tonnes. This was due to hurricane damage to POSCO’s stainless steelmaking facilities, sustained earlier in the year. However, the company recently announced that its stainless cold rolling mill came back online, in January. MEPS envisages a staged ramp-up of production in 2023, with the total for the year reaching 2 million tonnes.
Production in 2023 is forecast to increase, year-on-year, by 7%, in Japan, and 8.5%, in Taiwan. Improving market sentiment in East Asia should support an upturn in stainless steel consumption, in 2023.
