Global stainless crude steel production increased substantially in the April to June period, according to an article in Stainless Steel Review (July 2002. The main driver was continued strong demand from China. The significant improvement in output should be maintained for most of the third quarter. However, steel-making in the final trimester could be lower.
Stainless steel production in the West is forecast to reach 18.65 million tonnes in 2002 – up 600,000 tonnes (3.5%) on the year. Despite the anticipated moderation in the final quarter, this year’s outturn is forecast to be the highest ever for the stainless sector.
EU steelmakers were benefitting from the increasing foreign sales opportunities and consumer stockbuilding. Over the first five months, output was up 6% on the same period in 2001. Mill order books are reasonably firm. However, an extended reduction in the nickel price could bring on an inventory depletion phase during the final quarter of the year as alloy surcharges decrease.
Japanese shipments have been very strong after an extremely slow start to the year. All the improvement has come from higher exports to China and other Asian countries. This situation is unlikely to continue into the last trimester.
US stainless production should steadily increase now that the NAS melt shop is in service. However, full capacity is not likely to be reached in the near term.
South Korean and Taiwanese stainless steel-makers have also made gains in output from the Chinese safeguard measures in the short term. This boon will be short-lived. Demand in the final three months is likely to be lower.
