According to Meps, global stainless steel output is expected to reach 29 million tones this year – an increase of 2.2% on the figure in 2006. This may seem a reasonable outcome but all is not well in the market. In fact, if we exclude China, steel manufacturing in the rest of the world is forecast to decline by 5.3%. Currently, the metal’s price is half the peak value, three months ago. Meps has forecasted crude stainless output in the EU, in 2007, falling to 8.55 million tonnes – a reduction of 8.5%, year on year. US stainless manufacturing was already down by 190,000tns in the first half compared to 2006. A 5.4% decline is predicted in 2007 relative to the previous year. Stainless production in Japan in the first half of this year was considerably higher than the equivalent figure in 2006. However, output curbs have been announced. We now expect the final outturn for 2007 to be slightly down on the year earlier. In South Korea, a marginal reduction for 2007 is expected. Taiwanese output has been sluggish and a 6.3% decrease is forecast for this year. Countries in the “others” category had a good start to 2007 and reasonable levels of output are likely in South Africa, Brazil and India during the second half – leading to an overall rise in steelmaking. Chinese production will be lower in the third and fourth quarters compared to the figures recorded earlier in the year. This should still leave the country’s output in excess of 7 million tonnes in 2007 because of the heightened activity in periods one and two.
